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How the Coast FIRE number is calculated, step by step

The exact arithmetic behind the StockFly Coast FIRE calculator: the retirement target from your spending and withdrawal rate, the return after inflation, the amount needed today, and how soon a monthly saving gets you there.

The Coast FIRE calculator takes your age, the age you want to retire, your yearly spending and a few rates, and tells you how much you need invested today. This page shows every step, so you can check the answer yourself.

You have reached Coast FIRE when what you already have, left alone, grows to your retirement target by the age you want to retire. After that, saving for retirement is optional.

Step 1: the target

target = yearly spending in retirement ÷ withdrawal rate
(a monthly figure is multiplied by 12 first)

40,000 a year (about 3,333 a month) at a 4% withdrawal rate needs 1,000,000. The 4% comes from a 1994 study of historical US stock and bond returns (William Bengen, "Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data", Journal of Financial Planning), which found that taking 4% in the first year of retirement, then raising that amount with inflation, lasted at least 30 years in every period it tested.

Step 2: the return after inflation

real return = (1 + return) ÷ (1 + inflation) − 1

Everything is worked out in today's money, so the spending you enter keeps its meaning. A 10% return with 3% inflation is (1.10 ÷ 1.03) − 1 = 6.80% a year in today's money. Subtracting 3 from 10 would give 7% and slightly understate it.

Step 3: back to today

Coast FIRE number = target ÷ (1 + real return) ^ years to retirement

With 30 years to go, 1,000,000 ÷ (1 + 6.80%)^30 = 139,103. That much invested today reaches the target by 65 with nothing more added. Growth is compounded monthly at the same yearly rate, which gives the same result over whole years.

Step 4: how soon monthly saving gets you there

Someone in that position with 60,000 invested is 79,103 short today. Adding 700 a month, the calculator checks each month in turn for the first one from which the pot, left alone, still reaches the target by 65. Here that is 14 years and 10 months, at 49. The monthly amount is assumed to rise with prices, like everything else in today's money. When the amount entered can never get there in time, the calculator shows the monthly amount that reaches the full target by the retirement age instead.

The return averages

The buttons under the return field fill in these long-run averages, before inflation:

AverageYearly returnPeriodSource
S&P 500, long-run average10.7%January 1957 to August 2026, dividends reinvestedRobert Shiller's dataset, compiled by officialdata.org
Global stocks (MSCI World)9.1%December 1987 to August 2026, gross return in US dollarsMSCI World Index factsheet
US bonds (Bloomberg US Aggregate)6.6%1976 to 2023, total returnBogleheads wiki, citing the index publisher
High-yield savings, typical in 20264%a typical top online savings rate in September 2026, not a long-run averageFDIC national rates and published bank rate tables

Past averages are not a promise. Try a lower return as well and see how much the answer moves. Fees and taxes are not included: take fees off the return you enter.

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